[Xangle Digest]

※ This article contains content originally published by a third party on July 6, 2023. Please refer to the bottom of the article for the copyright notice regarding this content. 

※ This is a summary of the weekly research published by Matrixport on July 6th.

Executive Summary

On June 22, 2023, Bitcoin made a new one-year high, marking the first time in a year. This signal has historically indicated the end of bear markets and the start of new crypto bull markets. Previous occurrences took place in August 2012, December 2015, May 2019, and August 2020, with the actual bull markets materialising in 2013, 2017, and 2021.

Bitcoin (log) when the one-year new high signal is triggered (green) 
Source: Matrixport Technologies

This signal has been triggered four times and in all four cases, the bull market fully unfolded within 12-18 months. If history is any guide, then, there is now a 100% probability that by the end of 2024, Bitcoin will experience another massive bull market with a price target of $125,000 (+310%) - based on the previous three signals.

With the potential approval of the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF and other institutional providers, the demand for Bitcoin could continue to support prices into our $45,000 year-end target and our $63,160 Bitcoin halving target (May 2024). There is no obvious indication of what will drive the next bull market, but the data indicates that Bitcoin could continue to rally into the 2024 halving. Many market participants argued that the Bitcoin bear market would continue throughout the year as the overhang from the crypto bankruptcies and the expected regulatory backlash would cause prices to stay low for the year. ‘Matrix on Target’ had a different view, based on proven and reliable data analysis.

As Bitcoin traded at $23,400, ‘Matrix on Target’ projected a year-end target of $45,000 – based on our ‘January Effect’ model. This was driven by the tailwind of lower inflation numbers as the Federal Reserve became less hawkish about future interest rate hikes. This led us to put forward our projections for the year on February 3, 2023, and we projected that by July 12, 2023 (the nearest date as to when today’s report is published), Bitcoin would be trading at $31,799. Indeed, Bitcoin is currently trading $30,830, which is just 2% away from our projected level based on the anticipated path.

On March 30, 2023, we unveiled our crypto portfolio in our report ‘How to Achieve +112% Upside Potential’. Bitcoin (BTC) prices had just increased to $28,521 and many had missed our earlier calls that Bitcoin prices could experience an explosive rally in 2023. In response to many questions we received about what to invest in, we published our crypto portfolio, suggesting ‘Investors should buy now what is cheap and forgotten – relative to the strong rally that we have seen with Bitcoin’. This portfolio, which anybody could have bought, is now up +63% in three months, with 9 out of 10 assets showing positive returns and three being up more than >+100%.

If history is any guide and we only use the last three signals (removing the 2012 signal as the 2013 bull market was an epic, out-of-proportion bull market with a 5,285% rally), then Bitcoin prices could climb by +123% over twelve months, and by +310% over eighteen months – based on the average return of the signals triggered in 2015, 2019 and 2020. This would lift prices to $65,539 in twelve months and $125,731 over eighteen months.

-> 'Click' here to read the full report.